2023 Comprehensive National League Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies look to defend their NL Pennant and claim the ultimate prize as they face stiff competition across the rest of the league.

Saturday, February 18th

(Excerpt from American League Preview written below here too)

As pitchers, catchers, and entire teams begin to report to Spring Training in Florida and Arizona, it is officially time to start thinking about baseball. Following Super Bowl 57 which saw a thrilling win for the Kansas City Chiefs over the Philadelphia Eagles, the focus turns to our nation's pastime. Last year, I predicted the New York Mets to defeat the Chicago White Sox in six games. That prediction turned out to be way off, as the White Sox significantly underperformed, missing the playoffs altogether and the Mets stunningly collapsed in Atlanta losing the division before petering out in solemn fashion to the San Diego Padres. With that being said, let's get into the comprehensive preview for the upcoming season with my annual predictions and analysis!

To begin, let's get an overview of where the top 2022 Free Agents signed this past offseason:

Aaron Judge (NYY)

Jacob DeGrom (TEX)

Justin Verlander (NYM)

Trea Turner (PHI)

Carlos Correa (MIN)

Carlos Rodon (NYY)

Xander Bogaerts (SD)

Dansby Swanson (CHC)

Edwin Diaz (NYM)

William Contreras (STL)

Jose Abreu (HOU)

Brandon Nimmo (NYM)

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

The most notable signing has to be Aaron Judge, coming off an MVP year that saw him break Roger Maris’ 61 year record of 61 home runs. The Yankees also signed Carlos Rodon, giving the Pinstripes a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation that the club has been looking for for years. The Mets lost the injury prone DeGrom, must still managed to have a big offseason replenishing their staff with Kodai Senga from Japan and Verlander to pair with Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation. The club also inked popular outfielder Brandon Nimmo to a vital deal and locked up star closer Edwin Diaz (cue the trumpets again). The Red Sox shockingly allowed Bogaerts to walk, as the Padres made a splash at the shortstop position. Correa, following a failed physical incident, lost out on the Giants and Mets as potential suitors as he ended up back with the Twins. Arguably the best shortstop in the game, Trea Turner signed with the Philadelphia Phillies as they begin their pennant defense. Swanson signed with the Cubs, in what is a big move for them and a tough loss for the Braves. The Cardinals pried all-star catcher Wilson Contreras away from their archrival Cubs, inking him to a deal. Finally, the Dodgers resigned Kershaw in a move indicative of their mutual likely plans to make him a Dodger for life.

There is the 2022 MLB Offseason recap; let’s get into my 2023 National League predictions…

NL EAST

1. New York Mets (Nick’s Projected Win Total: 102)

Coming off an impressive regular season that ultimately culminated in disaster the final weekend of the season in Atlanta and into October with a dud of a performance against the San Diego Padres, the Mets enter 2023 poised with World Series expectations again. This offseason, while the team lost pitcher Jacob Degrom, they replenished their pitching talent by signing Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga from Japan. In the rotation, one thing to keep an eye on for the Mets is the age of their pitching rotation. This will be something that Buck Showalter will have to closely keep his eye on as the grueling season progresses. The Mets also re-signed star closer Edwin Diaz to a new deal, cueing the trumpets again in Queens. The lineup rounds out a very well-rounded team, featuring quality players such as first baseman Pete Alonso, shortstop Francisco Lindor, second baseman Jeff McNeil, and resigned outfielder Brandom Nimmo. One under the radar signing for the Amazin’s this offseason was ex-Brewers catcher Omar Narvaez. Steve Cohen has lifted the Mets to the highest payroll in the sport by far, and don't be surprised one bit if this team is still playing deep into October.

2. Philadelphia Phillies (Projected Win Total: 98)

The fightin’ Phils enter 2023 as the defending National League Champions. Pushing the champion Astros to six games in last year’s fall classic, the Phillies largely retained all of their main pieces. Signing star shortstop (and arguably the best in the game at his position) Trea Turner was a huge splash in free agency, and will pair nicely with outfielder Bryce Harper and designated hitter Kyle Schwarber in the lineup. Aaron Nola leads a rotation that should be among the NL’s best, with the bullpen featuring arms such as newly acquired Craig Kimbrel and Seranthony Dominguez.

3. Atlanta Braves (Projected Win Total: 95)

The Braves round out what shapes up to be a three-headed monster in the NL East race this season just like last year. While losing star shortstop Dansby Swanson in free agency to the Cubs stings, the offense still is potent with a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr., first baseman Matt Olson, third baseman Austin Riley, and second baseman Ozzie Albies. Furthermore, Michael Harris Jr. is a name to keep an eye on as a breakout player last year entering this sophomore campaign. The rotation, like the Mets and Phillies, shapes up to be among the best in the game returning Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, and Mike Soroka. Raisel Iglesias figures to get a lot of late inning opportunities for holds and saves as a good acquisition in the bullpen. The top three teams in this division really could be considered interchangeable, and while I have the Braves finishing third in their division they will remain a potent force come October.

4. Miami Marlins (Projected Win Total: 82)

I have the Marlins going just over .500 this year as a team that is ready to show improvement. Their is a lot of young talent on this Marlins roster, which has oftentimes been the victim the past few years of the very quality division they play in. Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara leads a stable rotation. Miami made a lot of great additions offensively, acquiring hitting and on base machine Luis Arraez from the Twins to pair with MLB the Show cover boy shortstop Jazz Chisholm, outfielder Jorge Soler, and second baseman Joey Wendle in an improving lineup. The bullpen is undersaturated, and is the biggest area that the team will need to address going forward.

5. Washington Nationals (Projected Win Total: 67)

The Nationals will be awful again this year, following a 2022 campaign that saw the club as one of the worst in all of baseball. The roster is littered with potential emerging young talent, including the likes of shortstop CJ Abrams and catcher Keiburt Ruiz. Pitching-wise, Patrick Corbin, yes, Patrick Corbin is slated to be their Opening Day starter. That is all that has to be said about them.

NL CENTRAL

1. St. Louis Cardinals (Projected Win Total: 94)

The Cardinals enter 2023 remaining the most well-balanced team in the NL Central. Offensively, reigning MVP first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and perennial all-star third baseman Nolan Arenado pace a redbirds offense sure to be among the NL’s best this upcoming season. The team also made a splash in the offseason, replacing HOF catcher Yadier Molina with one of the best catchers in the game currently Willson Contreras. Made even better by this transaction was how the team pried Contreras away from their archrivals in the Cubs. The rotation is led by Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, and Adam Wainwright which should be above average in the NL. This is easily the safest pick in a division that should be better but still among the league's worst from top to bottom this season.

2. Milwaukee Brewers (Projected Win Total: 90)

The Brew Crew figure to remain a solid team this season, as a team that narrowly missed the Postseason last year collapsing down the stretch. The team returns pitching three headed monster in star Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. In the bullpen, Devin Williams will take the closer role for his first full season following the departure of Josh Hader to the Padres last trade deadline. Lineup-wise, the team is led by shortstop Willy Adames again as they also hope for a resurgence from 2018 MVP Christian Yelich. Yelich, in his age 31 season, remains a potential huge X factor for a Brewers team that still can compete. One of the best moves for any team in the offseason was how the Brewers managed to acquire free agent catcher William Contreras. Contereras had a great season for the Braves last year.

3. Chicago Cubs (Projected Win Total: 83)

I was a huge fan of what the Cubs did this offseason, with key additions and low risk, high reward signings including shortstop Dansby Swanson, outfielder and former MVP Cody Bellinger, and pitcher Jameson Taillon. The team also still employs outfielders Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Look for a potential breakout campaign for infielder Nico Hoerner. The bullpen is weak and will cost the Cubbies, but it should be a much better season on the North Side of Chicago.

4. Cincinnati Reds (Projected Win Total: 76)

Count on the Reds to be a bit better than last year following a horrendous start to the season in April and May. The offense is paced by the likes of breakout performer catcher Tyler Stephenson, first baseman Joey Votto, Outfielder Wil Myers, and infielder Jonathan India. Pitching-wise, Hunter Greene is a name to watch. Overall, the pitching from a starting pitching and bullpen standpoint is devoid of talent and will likely struggle.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (Projected Win Total: 72)

The Pirates are still clearly a bottom feeder in the division and league, but figure to post a little bit better of a season in 2023. The team resigned Pittsburgh legend Andrew McCutchen to a deal this offseason which will make them fairly watchable. Other players to continue to watch include shortstop Oneil Cruz and outfielder Bryan Reynolds. The pitching, both starting and the bullpen, will be amongst the worst in the league.

NL WEST

1. San Diego Padres (Projected Win Total: 98)

For the first time in about a decade, I predict that there will be a new NL West champion. The Padres have been going for it the past few seasons, and in my estimation have finally surpassed the Dodgers. The team is stacked offensively, with the latest major acquisition being shortstop Xander Bogaerts pairing with outfielder Juan Soto, returning outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. following his suspension, and third baseman Manny Machado. The starting pitching and bullpen are also solid, featuring the likes of Joe Musgrove, newly resigned Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell. Josh Hader backs a bullpen that will be filthy as a candidate for most saves in the NL and league this upcoming season.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Projected Win Total: 93)

While I still envision the Dodgers being a quality team this season, they do carry an aura of seeming like the “worst” they've been in a while. In the lineup, the team will rely heavily on outfielder Mookie Betts, first baseman Freddie Freeman, and catcher Will Smith. The pitching will be aided significantly by the return of starter Walker Buehler, while future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is back as well. Pitcher Tony Gonsolin remains a key asset whether deployed as a starter or long reliever. X factors for the Dodgers include how well infielder Max Muncy bounces back as well as a potential breakout campaign by Dustin May. The Dodgers will remain a postseason team in 2023, but it is hard to see them as the World Series threat they've been the past few seasons. A step back will occur.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks (Projected Win Total: 85)

While Arizona will still likely miss the playoffs this season, this team is slept on and was better than people may realize this past season. For starters, their emerging prospect pool is among the best in the MLB with multiple prospects in the Top 15 league-wide. The rotation is led by likely Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The acquisition of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will benefit a lineup that has other key pieces including infielders Christian Walker and Ketel Marte. Look for Arizona to be competitive this year, finishing over .500.

4. San Francisco Giants (Projected WIn Total: 75)

The Giants are bad. Losing out on star free agents Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa were backbreakers for a team that needed and failed to make a big move this offseason. While adding a very quality player in Mitch Haniger was a good move and will make the lineup better, it does not move the needle nearly enough for the Giants. Other players to keep an eye on for this rebuilding squad are promising catcher Joey Bart and outfielder Michael Conforto who is back after missing all of last year due to injury. Starting pitching-wise, Logan Webb, Alex Wood, and Sean Manaea look to keep the team competitive as a middle of the pack rotation in the NL. Camilo Doval will hold the closer role to begin the season, looking to bounce back after an underwhelming 2022 season.

5. Colorado Rockies (Projected Win Total: 70)

The Rockies remain the clear-cut bottom feeder in this division in 2023. The team will need infielder/outfielder Kris Bryant to remain healthy and produce similar numbers to what he did for the Cubs a couple of years ago. This may be a tall order, but unfortunately for Rockies fans, he may be the only reason why this team is watchable. Keep an eye on the following names who may have a good 2023 season individually: first baseman C.J. Cron who was the team's best hitter by far in 2022 and second baseman Brendan Rodgers. Overall, the pitching is a disaster and will be the main problem for a team with plenty of holes hurt even further by the dimensions and air situation of Coors Field.

NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

NL SEEDING

1. NEW YORK METS (BYE)

2. SAN DIEGO PADRES (BYE)

3. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (THIRD DIVISION WINNER)

4. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (WILD CARD 1)

5. ATLANTA BRAVES (WILD CARD 2)

6. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (WILD CARD 3)

NL WILD CARD ROUND

#6 LOS ANGELES @ #3 ST. LOUIS

#5 ATLANTA @ #4 PHILADELPHIA

NL DIVISION ROUND

#3 ST. LOUIS @ #2 SAN DIEGO

#5 ATLANTA @ #1 NEW YORK

NL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

#2 SAN DIEGO @ #1 NEW YORK (NEW YORK WINS 4-2)

NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT WINNER

NEW YORK METS