2023 Comprehensive American League Preview

The defending World Series champion Houston Astros lead a list of a handful of serious contenders vying for the AL Pennant and World Series this season.

Friday, February 17th

As pitchers, catchers, and entire teams begin to report to Spring Training in Florida and Arizona, it is officially time to start thinking about baseball. Following Super Bowl 57 which saw a thrilling win for the Kansas City Chiefs over the Philadelphia Eagles, the focus turns to our nation's pastime. Last year, I predicted the New York Mets to defeat the Chicago White Sox in six games. That prediction turned out to be way off, as the White Sox significantly underperformed, missing the playoffs altogether and the Mets stunningly collapsed in Atlanta losing the division before petering out in solemn fashion to the San Diego Padres. With that being said, let's get into the comprehensive preview for the upcoming season with my annual predictions and analysis!

To begin, let's get an overview of where the top 2022 Free Agents signed this past offseason:

Aaron Judge (NYY)

Jacob DeGrom (TEX)

Justin Verlander (NYM)

Trea Turner (PHI)

Carlos Correa (MIN)

Carlos Rodon (NYY)

Xander Bogaerts (SD)

Dansby Swanson (CHC)

Edwin Diaz (NYM)

William Contreras (STL)

Jose Abreu (HOU)

Brandon Nimmo (NYM)

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

The most notable signing has to be Aaron Judge, coming off an MVP year that saw him break Roger Maris’ 61 year record of 61 home runs. The Yankees also signed Carlos Rodon, giving the Pinstripes a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation that the club has been looking for for years. The Mets lost the injury prone DeGrom but still managed to have a big offseason replenishing their staff with Kodai Senga from Japan and Verlander to pair with Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation. The club also inked popular outfielder Brandon Nimmo to a vital deal and locked up star closer Edwin Diaz (cue the trumpets again). The Red Sox shockingly allowed Bogaerts to walk, as the Padres made a splash at the shortstop position. Correa, following a failed physical incident, lost out on the Giants and Mets as potential suitors as he ended up back with the Twins. Arguably the best shortstop in the game, Trea Turner signed with the Philadelphia Phillies as they begin their pennant defense. Swanson signed with the Cubs, in what is a big move for them and a tough loss for the Braves. The Cardinals pried all-star catcher Wilson Contreras away from their archrival Cubs, inking him to a deal. Finally, the Dodgers resigned Kershaw in a move indicative of their mutual likely plans to make him a Dodger for life.

There is the 2022 MLB Offseason recap; let’s get into my 2023 American League predictions…

AL EAST

1. New York Yankees (Nick’s Projected Win Total: 98)

The Yankees enter 2023 having had a 2022 season full of ups and downs. The first half of the 2022 season had fans calling it a resemblance of the 1998 Yankees, before the team suffered a dismal second half, namely in August. Ultimately, the Yankees fell to the Houston Astros in what has seemingly become an annual occurrence. This year, the Yankees were able to re-sign superstar Aaron Judge to a huge extension following his massive MVP year in which he hit 62 home runs. The club also re-signed first baseman Anthony Rizzo. A second big signing occurred when the club inked star pitcher Carlos Rodon to a massive deal which solved a big piece of the puzzle that they had been missing: An ace like pitcher following #1 starter Gerrit Cole. While the team has questions still as positions such as shortstop and left field (will it be Peraza, Volpe, or IKF at short? Is Aaron Hicks really going to be the every day left fielder?) the team still has too much talent to lose the division. The Yankees are the best team in this division, and should win it fairly comfortably.

2. Baltimore Orioles (Projected Win Total: 92)

In my first bold prediction of the 2023 season, I am picking the Baltimore Orioles, despite a relatively inactive offseason, to return to relevance in 2023. Following a surprise 2022 campaign in which the team hovered right around the .500 mark by season's end, the Orioles will see the return of ace John Means following Tommy John Surgery. When looking at the Orioles prospect pipeline, the club is loaded with big names such as Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson. Cedric Mullins remains a pesky, quality hitter at the top of the order as well. Catcher Adley Rutschman is primed for a big sophomore campaign, as a former top prospect himself. This Orioles team has a plan, and they will begin to reap the rewards of the foundation of said plan this year.

3. Toronto Blue Jays (Projected Win Total: 88)

While I love the Blue Jays lineup as has been the case the past few years (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, etc.) it is the bullpen that still brings me pause. With all that being said, this is still a very quality team that will make a Wild Card push in 2023 and be very dangerous come playoff time. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman are a solid 1-2 at the top of the rotation, but after that the depth is a bit concerning. One of the biggest X factors for this team will be Jose Berrios; can he figure it out and return to some semblance of top of the rotation potential form or is he officially a bust for the Jays? This question may make or break the Jays. Bullpen-wise, Jordan Romano is a stud but besides him other arms will have to step up. The Orioles are a bit more well balanced, and as a result the Jays will finish third. They feel like a team that should have done a bit more this offseason like the O’s.

4. Tampa Bay Rays (Projected Win Total: 84)

Count on this Rays team to finish above .500 this year, but not much more. While star pitcher Tyler Glasnow returns to pair up with Sean McClanahan, the Rays offer little else to generate much excitement as the 2023 season dawns. While it is hard to count them out due to how well they develop pitching talent, that is exactly what I am doing this year. That lineup that they put out in the Wild Card series against the Guardians last year was one of the worst I have ever seen for a playoff team and with it being relatively the same it is hard to see them beating out the likes of the Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays for a playoff spot this season. Hey, at least Rays fans can look forward to a likely full season of Wander Franco again following his injury riddled, short 2022 campaign.

5. Boston Red Sox (Projected Win Total: 75)

The Red Sox will not be as bad as many suspect in 2023, but this is still not a particularly good team. The move to lock up Rafael Devers was essential this offseason, and the team got the job down. However, losing Xander Bogaerts to the Padres was a massive gamble, and will seemingly come with huge consequences in the short term. In the rotation, it is Chris Sale and…exactly. One positive, intriguing development is the high risk, high reward singing of Japanese phenom outfielder Masataka Yoshida Red Sox nation has a bright future, but their team will finish in last in the AL East this upcoming season.

AL CENTRAL

1. Cleveland Guardians (Projected Win Total: 95)

While many will likely pick the White Sox to have a resurgent, bounce back campaign to the top of the division, I am picking the Guardians to take the crown. The Guardians have one of the best managers in the league with Terry Francona, and arguably the best closer in the game with Emmanuel Clase. Their lineup includes stud third baseman Jose Ramirez and pesky top of the order hitter Steven Kwan who is a hits machine. Of course, the pitching is also deep with quality pitchers Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie. In a division that poses to be a two or three team race this season, take the Guardians as the safe pick to win the division again.

2. Minnesota Twins (Projected Win Total: 85)

The Twins made a splash with the same player again in free agency this offseason, inking Carlos Correa following the Giants in Mets both offering and revoking deals to him after concerns about his physical regarding his ankle. Besides Correa, the team will heavily rely on the likes of Byron Buxton in the lineup and Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray in the rotation. Underrated moves that the team made include adding pitchers Chris Paddack and Pablo Lopez as well as catcher Christian Vasquez who brings world series pedigree having won rings with the Red Sox and Astros

3. Chicago White Sox (Projected Win Total: 78)

The White Sox heavily underperformed in 2022, and I am predicting the same to happen again this year. The loss of Jose Abreu, who had been a stabilizing force in their lineup for years, hurts a lot while the team did little to make up for it this offseason, Pitching-wise, there is a lot of potential but it has to be filled and the White Sox have yet to see that consistency over season long periods of time with the majority of their staff. Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and Lucas Giolito will keep the team competitive, but the underwhelming lineup besides shortstop Tim Anderson will hold the team back and leave southsiders both livid and scratching their heads. Andrew Benintendi was a nice addition, but does not move the needle enough to consider the Sox as a top team in the AL or AL Central for that matter.

4. Kansas City Royals (Projected Win Total: 70)

The Royals will be a little bit better this year, but barely. However, this is a young team with a lot of talent to look forward to down the road. Perennial all-star catcher candidate Salvador Perez and sophomore campaign shortstop stud Bobby Witt Jr. lead a steadily improving offense. Losing Aldaberto Mondesi to Boston will hurt them on the basepaths, but the Royals are equipped to make up for it with the young, speedy talent. Pitching-wise, this team is very bare besides emerging star Brady Singer. The bullpen is overall mediocre, but does feature a solid closer in Scott Barlow and intriguing additions including wildcard Aroldis Chapman.

5. Detroit Tigers (Projected Win Total: 68)

The Tigers are still a couple of years away, and while they too have young talent I perceive the Royals as having just a bit more major league ready talent at this particular juncture. Shortstop Javier Baez was a disaster in his inaugural season in Michigan last season, and will have to be all-star caliber if this team has any chance to contend this season. Miguel Cabrera enters what potentially could be his last season with little left to prove in a career that will certainly end up with him being enshrined in Cooperstown following over 500 home runs and over 3,000 hits. Young talent wise, the Tigers are hoping that in the midst of this rebuilt Riley Greene and Spencer Torkleson continue to develop. If that happens, the team will feel a lot better about their rebuild and prospects going forward in the hopes of competing beginning in 2024.

AL WEST

1. Houston Astros (Projected Win Total: 100)

Pencil the Astros in again as winning 100 games. Even with the loss of Justin Verlander to the Mets, this squad is loaded at all parts of the game as the defending champions look to repeat and win their *third* championship in the last six years. Everybody and their mother knows that the Astros are the team to beat, and you know the names by now. The Astros will win the AL West again, riding the likes of superstars Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jose Pena, and Kyle Tucker in the lineup as well as a deep rotation that includes pitchers Luis Garcia, Jose Uruquidy, and Lance McCullers who is back after being out most of last season. Oh, and your reward in the ninth inning? Enter Ryan Pressly who is one of the best closers in the game. The Astros will be a popular World Series pick again in 2023.

2. Seattle Mariners (Projected Win Total: 96)

The Mariners are officially in win now mode and ready to fully compete for an American League pennant. After clinching their first postseason appearance since 2001 this past season, the M’s are looking for more as they are led by budding superstar outfielder Julio Rodriguez. Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez was also a very good signing this offseason, and in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers the team acquired quality second baseman Kolten Wong. The pitching is filthy, including a three headed monster of Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert. The bullpen will need some shoring up, but overall the M’s are a very quality team that will push the Astros a little bit in the dog days of August before coming up just short in second place.

3. Los Angeles Angels (Projected Win Total: 81)

The Angels strike me as the perfect .500 team. While I feel that they will improve off of their 74 win total from last season, I remain unimpressed with their moves as a whole. Superstar Shohei Ohtani as both the ace of the staff and arguably best hitter on the roster and stud Mike Trout will keep this team competitive, but as has often been the case; who else is a difference maker on the roster? Some potential difference maker names to watch include: third baseman Anthony Rendon who was injury prone in the 2022 campaign and free agent acquisition Hunter Renfroe who has a massive career year in Boston in 2021 followed up with a solid season for the Brewers in 2022. Ultimately, pitching will be this team's undoing as usual.

4. Texas Rangers (Projected Win Total: 80)

The race for the third spot in this division really is a toss-up, as the Rangers have steadily been opening up the pocket book to do their best to win the past couple of seasons. With that being said, their main offseason acquisition this offseason, pitcher Jacob DeGrom, gives me pause due to his extensive injury history. In the lineup, last year’s star signings figure to be solid regarding shortstop Corey Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien. Pitching-wise, I like the addition of pitcher Nathan Eovaldi in the offseason but little else needs to be said. This team is definitely improving, but it also definitely top heavy and that leads to a fourth place result.

5. Oakland Athletics (Projected Win Total: 65)

Soon to be the Las Vegas A’s, the Athletics enter 2023 as the clear-cut worst team in their own division and likely the American League. Just like last year, there is little to be said about this team. Look for young talent such as catcher Sean Langeliers to potentially emerge as a solid piece for a franchise that is severely floundering.

AMERICAN LEAGUE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AL SEEDING

1. HOUSTON ASTROS (BYE)

2. NEW YORK YANKEES (BYE)

3. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (THIRD DIVISION WINNER)

4. SEATTLE MARINERS (WILD CARD 1)

5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES (WILD CARD 2)

6. TORONTO BLUE JAYS (WILD CARD 3)

AL WILD CARD ROUND

#6 TORONTO @ #3 CLEVELAND

#5 BALTIMORE @ #4 SEATTLE

AL DIVISION ROUND

#4 SEATTLE @ #1 HOUSTON

#3 CLEVELAND @ #2 NEW YORK

AL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

#2 NEW YORK v. #1 HOUSTON (HOUSTON WINS 4-3)

AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT WINNER

HOUSTON ASTROS